Large Air Tanker — Expert Factor Weighting

Independent panel round · second assessor · 2026-07-01
Purpose

What this asks you to do

Each risk factor's worst case is given a point value, set relative to one fixed reference factor. A first expert has already done this. Your independent assessment lets the two be compared, and a combined baseline built from both. Work from your own judgment — the first assessor's answers are not in this tool. A few crew factors show an early design pencil as a starting point; override it freely.

The reference is fixed for both assessors: a maxed-out drop day — eight hours flown, around 16 sorties, a twelve-and-a-half-hour-plus duty day, most of it spent in the aircraft — is worth 7.5 points. It is the unit, not a judgment. Part 1 paints the full picture.

Instructions

Before you begin

  • Work alone. Do not discuss any values with the first assessor until you have sent your answers back.
  • Complete the three parts in order: crew, then aircraft/mission/airport, then fire weather.
  • Your work saves automatically in this browser. Resume by reopening this link on the same device. There is also a Save progress button on every step.
  • At the end, one button downloads a single answers file for you to send back.
Expected time: about 35 minutes in total. You can stop and pick it up again in separate sessions. There are no right or wrong numbers — the values reflect your judgment.
Every crew factor gets a maximum point value at its worst case. Maxima are set by comparing each factor against a fixed reference. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
How crew scoring works in the finished tool: each seat — captain, first officer, flight engineer — is scored independently on these factors, and a seat weighting (set in a later pass) adjusts how much each position's condition drives the overall impact. A low-time captain will count for more than a low-time first officer. Here, rate each factor's worst case for a single pilot; the seat weighting is applied afterwards, not by you.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference is fixed at 7.5 points: a maxed-out drop day. Eight hours flown — around 16 sorties on a close fire — inside a duty day of twelve and a half hours or more. The crew has been in the aircraft most of the day and eaten lunch in it during reloads. The fatigue state at the end of that day, and the risk associated with that state alone, is what 7.5 points means. Every factor below is rated against it: equal concern at worst case = 7.5, half the concern = 3.75. crew.sorties-flown-today

The stick keeps its own day curve below. Sortie count varies with turnaround distance; a maxed day on a close fire may run 14–16 sorties. The curve's intermediate points are still yours to set — only the ceiling (the last row) is fixed, and it mirrors the 7.5 above.

Turning pointDrop sorties flownPoints added
The reference value is the unit. Equal concern at worst case = equal points; half the concern = half the points. Go / caution / no-go lines are set later, against whole scored days — no value here sets a threshold.
Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
Eight factors get a maximum point value at their worst case. Each is rated against a fixed reference set in the previous part. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference was fixed in the crew part: a maxed-out drop day — the daily flight-time limit, 8 hours flown (~16 legs) — is worth 7.5 points. Every factor below is rated against it. crew.sorties-flown-today

Nothing on this page changes the reference. The stick row below is shown for orientation only and cannot be moved.

Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason. Continuous factors also carry a small curve and, for airport wind, a gust-spread addition — these live on the cards; the slider sets only the worst-case ceiling.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
Weather factors for over-the-fire conditions are the next part.
Nine fire-weather factors get a maximum point value at their worst case. Each is rated against a fixed reference set in the crew part. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference was fixed in the crew part: a maxed-out drop day — the daily flight-time limit, 8 hours flown (~16 legs) — is worth 7.5 points. Every factor below is rated against it. crew.sorties-flown-today

Nothing on this page changes the reference. The stick row below is shown for orientation only and cannot be moved.

Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Check

Compound day check

One bad weather day — a dry cold front over a mountain fire — brings all four of these at once: strong winds, lee-side turbulence, fire-generated weather, and a thunderstorm. The table adds up your four sliders so you can judge what that whole day is worth in total, not factor by factor.

FactorLevel on this dayPoints
Set the inputs below to see this day's total.
These four rise together on the same real day. Judge the SUM against the reference, not each factor alone; adjust the sliders if the sum reads wrong.
Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason. Continuous factors also carry a small curve; some carry an extra input. These live on the cards; the slider sets only the worst-case ceiling.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
Finish

Combined review and download

A summary of every factor across the three parts. Check it reads the way you intend, then download the single answers file and send it back. You can go back to any part to change a value; the download always reflects the latest.

FactorPartWorst-case pointsvs. reference