Large Air Tanker — Expert Factor Weighting

Independent panel round · second assessor · 2026-07-01
Purpose

What this asks you to do

Each risk factor's worst case is given a point value, set relative to one fixed reference factor. A first expert has already done this. Your independent assessment lets the two be compared, and a combined baseline built from both. Work from your own judgment — the first assessor's answers are not in this tool. A few crew factors show an early design pencil as a starting point; override it freely.

The reference is fixed for both assessors: a maxed-out drop day — eight hours flown, around 16 sorties, a twelve-and-a-half-hour-plus duty day, most of it spent in the aircraft — is worth 7.5 points. It is the unit, not a judgment. Part 1 paints the full picture.

Instructions

Before you begin

  • Work alone. Do not discuss any values with the first assessor until you have sent your answers back.
  • Complete the four parts in order: crew, then aircraft/mission/airport, then fire weather, then the crew seat weighting.
  • Your work saves automatically in this browser. Resume by reopening this link on the same device. There is also a Save progress button on every step.
  • At the end, one button downloads a single answers file for you to send back.
Expected time: about 45 minutes in total. You can stop and pick it up again in separate sessions. There are no right or wrong numbers — the values reflect your judgment.
Every crew factor gets a maximum point value at its worst case. Maxima are set by comparing each factor against a fixed reference. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
How crew scoring works in the finished tool: each seat — captain, first officer, flight engineer — is scored independently on these factors, and a seat weighting adjusts how much each position's condition drives the overall impact. A low-time captain may count for more than a low-time first officer. Here, rate each factor's worst case for a single pilot; you set the seat weighting yourself in the final step.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference is fixed at 7.5 points: a maxed-out drop day. Eight hours flown — around 16 sorties on a close fire — inside a duty day of twelve and a half hours or more. The crew has been in the aircraft most of the day and eaten lunch in it during reloads. The fatigue state at the end of that day, and the risk associated with that state alone, is what 7.5 points means. Every factor below is rated against it: equal concern at worst case = 7.5, half the concern = 3.75. crew.sorties-flown-today

The stick keeps its own day curve below. Sortie count varies with turnaround distance; a maxed day on a close fire may run 14–16 sorties. The curve's intermediate points are still yours to set — only the ceiling (the last row) is fixed, and it mirrors the 7.5 above.

Turning pointDrop sorties flownPoints added
The reference value is the unit. Equal concern at worst case = equal points; half the concern = half the points. Go / caution / no-go lines are set later, against whole scored days — no value here sets a threshold.
Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
Eight factors get a maximum point value at their worst case. Each is rated against a fixed reference set in the previous part. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference was fixed in the crew part: a maxed-out drop day — the daily flight-time limit, 8 hours flown (~16 legs) — is worth 7.5 points. Every factor below is rated against it. crew.sorties-flown-today

Nothing on this page changes the reference. The stick row below is shown for orientation only and cannot be moved.

Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason. Continuous factors also carry a small curve and, for airport wind, a gust-spread addition — these live on the cards; the slider sets only the worst-case ceiling.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
Weather factors for over-the-fire conditions are the next part.
Nine fire-weather factors get a maximum point value at their worst case. Each is rated against a fixed reference set in the crew part. Sliders set the relative picture; the tool then suggests point values, confirmed one at a time with a recorded reason. Half-points. No reference answers exist for these figures.
Part A

The measuring stick is already fixed

The reference was fixed in the crew part: a maxed-out drop day — the daily flight-time limit, 8 hours flown (~16 legs) — is worth 7.5 points. Every factor below is rated against it. crew.sorties-flown-today

Nothing on this page changes the reference. The stick row below is shown for orientation only and cannot be moved.

Part B

Set the picture — slide each factor’s worst case against the stick

Set each factor's worst case relative to the reference. Rank order and suggested point values follow from the slider positions.

Sliders are independent; the total is not budgeted. The stick row is pinned at the top for reference and is fixed. Rows keep their positions as you work. Each row is one factor: slide its worst case to where it sits against the reference line, and the badge shows the resulting order.

Check

Compound day check

One bad weather day — a dry cold front over a mountain fire — brings all four of these at once: strong winds, lee-side turbulence, fire-generated weather, and a thunderstorm. The table adds up your four sliders so you can judge what that whole day is worth in total, not factor by factor.

FactorLevel on this dayPoints
Set the inputs below to see this day's total.
These four rise together on the same real day. Judge the SUM against the reference, not each factor alone; adjust the sliders if the sum reads wrong.
Part C

Confirm each factor — the board suggested these points; adjust if needed, and say why

Confirm each value and record the reason. Continuous factors also carry a small curve; some carry an extra input. These live on the cards; the slider sets only the worst-case ceiling.

Part D

Review

Caution: at least one factor is set at more than double the measuring stick. Confirm the reason supports it.
FactorRankMax pointsvs. stickWhy (your words)
The crew factors above are scored one pilot at a time — a fatigue level, a rust level, a first-on-mission level, each rated for the individual who carries it. What is not yet set is how much the same problem weighs depending on which seat the pilot occupies. That is what this part sets. The captain's seat is the reference; each other seat is placed against it. No reference answers exist for these figures.
Part A

The seats in play

Three seats can carry a crew-factor score, depending on the aircraft: the captain, the first officer, and — on types that carry one — the flight engineer. A weight is set for each seat, and it applies only on aircraft where that seat exists; the point values themselves stay the same across every aircraft type. In your own words, describe what each seat is responsible for on a drop — this is the comprehension check before the weighting.

Captain PIC — the reference seat
First officer SIC
Flight engineer FE (C-130 and similar; not present on two-crew types)
Part B

Set the picture — slide each seat against the captain

Take a crew problem of a given size — a pilot who is fatigued, rusty, or new to the mission, at some level. The captain's seat carries the full weight of that problem and is pinned as the reference. Slide the first officer and the flight engineer to show how hard the same problem bites in their seat, relative to the captain.

Sliders are independent. The captain row is pinned at the reference mark; slide the other seats left of it if the same problem bites less there, right if it bites harder. The readout is the seat's weight relative to the captain.

One weight per seat is the default. If a particular kind of problem bites differently by seat than the single weight above — say a tired flight engineer weighs differently than a rusty one relative to the captain — set that factor's own seat weights here. Any factor left untouched inherits the single weight from the board above.

Crew factor (scored per pilot)CaptainFirst officerFlight engineer
Flight-engineer weights apply only to factors the flight engineer can actually carry.
Part C

Confirm the weights — adjust the numbers, and say why if you like

Confirm the seat weights the board suggested. Reasons are optional and recorded verbatim if you give them.

Part D

Spot-check — do the weighted numbers look right?

Three crew-days, worked through with the weights above, shown back for a confirm or a flag. These validate the weights; they do not set them. If a number looks wrong, flag it and the weight gets revisited — the scenario is never solved backward for a value.

Part E

Review

Caution: a seat is set above the captain (weight > 1). Confirm the reason supports weighing that seat's problems heavier than the captain's.
SeatWeight (vs. captain)Per-factor overridesWhy (your words)
    Finish

    Combined review and download

    A summary of every factor across the three parts. Check it reads the way you intend, then download the single answers file and send it back. You can go back to any part to change a value; the download always reflects the latest.

    FactorPartWorst-case pointsvs. reference